Despite National slipping three percentage points, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's coalition has moved closer to securing a second term in the latest 1News Verian poll.
The poll, released Tuesday, October 27, places National on 29%, down from 32% last week. ACT has climbed one point to 12%, while New Zealand First rose two to 10%. The coalition's combined party-vote support remains at 51%, but its projected representation has increased from 60 to 61 MPs.
Labour remained unchanged at 27%, failing to benefit from National's decline. The Greens slipped one point to 15%, Opportunity fell to 6%, and Te Pāti Māori dropped to just 0.1%.
Under the poll's first parliamentary scenario, Te Pāti Māori wins only one electorate, leaving Parliament with 121 MPs. The coalition's 61 seats would be enough for a narrow majority, allowing it to govern without Opportunity.
However, if Te Pāti Māori retains four electorates and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi wins Te Tai Tokerau, Parliament would expand to 125 MPs. The coalition would remain on 61 seats, two short of the 63 required for a majority.
In that scenario, Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Kapa-Kingi would hold a combined 56 seats. With Opportunity's projected eight MPs, the grouping could reach 64 seats, enough to form a government if all parties and the electorate MP could reach an agreement. National has already ruled out working with Opportunity.
Both projections exclude a potential National Party overhang, which could significantly alter the parliamentary balance. Based on its party vote, National is projected to win just 34 seats, despite having held 44 electorate seats following the 2023 election and subsequent Port Waikato by-election. If National wins between 40 and 44 electorates again, it would retain those seats regardless of its party vote, creating an overhang of six to ten additional MPs and strengthening the coalition's position.
Meanwhile, Luxon leads Chris Hipkins by six points as preferred prime minister, having risen four points to 24%, while Hipkins gained one to 18%. The gap is the widest recorded between the two leaders in 1News polling this year.
The survey was conducted amid controversy over candidates' interactions with gang members, including the October 23 resignation of Labour's Tāmaki Makaurau candidate, Kerrin Leoni. Despite the headlines, Labour's support remained unchanged.
Verian surveyed 1,000 eligible voters between October 21 and 25, with a maximum sampling error of approximately ±3.1 percentage points.
With election day approaching on November 7, the outcome remains finely balanced. The final result could depend as much on Māori electorate contests and potential overhang seats as on the nationwide party vote.
