Germany’s AfD Win Simply Explained

Most people could probably be forgiven for not knowing much about Saxony-Anhalt. It is a German state of about 2.1 million people in the country’s former communist east.

This week, however, Saxony-Anhalt gave German politics a fairly vigorous kick in the lederhosen. Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won 43.8% of the vote in Sunday’s state election, its strongest state result yet. The party secured 39 of the 83 seats in the regional parliament, leaving it just three seats short of being able to govern alone. Turnout surged to 77.8%, up from 60.3% in 2021.

This was not a national election. AfD has not taken control of Germany, Friedrich Merz remains Chancellor and the federal government in Berlin remains in place. But when almost 44% of voters in one state back a party Germany’s main political parties have spent years refusing to work with, Berlin notices. Merz reportedly told his Christian Democratic Union that the result had shaken the party “to its very foundations”.

So, Who Exactly Are AfD?

The name translates simply as Alternative for Germany. For anyone who does not follow European politics, its appeal can be explained without several semesters of German political science.

AfD wants much tighter immigration controls, cheaper and more reliable energy, less power transferred to European institutions, an end to German military support for Ukraine and renewed economic relations with Russia. Those positions put it sharply at odds with Germany’s mainstream parties on some of the country’s biggest political questions.

If German politics were a family dinner, AfD is the relative who has spent years complaining that the bills are bonkers, the borders are badly managed and everyone should stop arguing with the neighbour who used to sell the family cheap gas. For years, the rest of the table largely responded by refusing to pass the potatoes. Now nearly half the room in Saxony-Anhalt appears to be listening.

Bills, Borders and a Bad Mood

Germany has struggled with weak growth, high energy costs and pressure on its industrial base. Add immigration, pensions, the cost of living and spending on defence and Ukraine, and there is no shortage of reasons for voters to grumble.

In one survey, 87% of Saxony-Anhalt voters said they were dissatisfied with the federal government. Another found three-quarters believed Chancellor Merz had hurt his own party’s result. That is less a political grumble than a collective groan.

AfD also performed strongly among workers, men and younger voters, suggesting its support reaches well beyond one narrow group. The ingredients are not hard to spot: bills, borders, bureaucracy and Berlin.

So What Power Does AfD Actually Have?

AfD won the election, but 39 seats are not enough to govern alone. It needs 42 for an outright majority. The CDU, Social Democrats, Greens and Left also hold 39 seats between them, while the smaller BSW has five. That makes AfD the largest party in the state parliament, but it cannot simply take power and start changing laws by itself.

Its first option is to try to form a minority government, most likely relying on support or abstentions from BSW. Its second is to remain outside government if the other parties manage to assemble enough support against it. A prolonged deadlock could eventually lead to another election, and AfD’s lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has already suggested he may prefer a fresh vote rather than make major compromises.

So the voters delivered a clear winner, but the government itself is still very much a work in progress.

Why Berlin Cares

Saxony-Anhalt is only one German state and accounts for less than 2% of the country’s economy. An AfD-led state government would not control Germany’s military, foreign policy, national taxes or federal immigration law. Those remain matters for Berlin.

The result still matters nationally because it shows how much support AfD can now attract in parts of Germany. Germany’s established parties can continue refusing to cooperate with AfD, criticise its policies and campaign against it. What they cannot do is make 43.8% disappear.

For Berlin, the important question is therefore no longer whether there is deep voter dissatisfaction. The ballot boxes have answered that. The harder question is what Germany’s political establishment does with the answer.