New Zealand First has surged to 12% support in the latest Taxpayers’ Union–Curia Poll, strengthening the governing coalition's projected parliamentary majority as both National and Labour remain below 30%.
The poll, released on Thursday, October 8, shows Winston Peters' NZ First gaining 3.6 percentage points since September, while National slipped 0.5 points to 28.5%.
Labour rose 2.3 points to 28.2%, leaving the country's two largest parties separated by just 0.3 percentage points.
The Greens recorded 13.3%, down 0.6 points, while ACT fell 1.3 points to 9.2%. Te Pāti Māori was on 1.4%, down 0.6 points.
Under Curia's seat projections, National would secure 37 seats, NZ First 16 and ACT 12, giving the existing coalition 65 seats in a 120-seat Parliament, up one seat from September.
Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would collectively hold 55 seats. The projections assume existing parliamentary parties with electorate seats retain at least one, with no overhang seats.
However, the result differs from two other polls released this week, particularly concerning the Opportunity Party.
Opportunity recorded 4.8% in the Curia poll, just below the 5% threshold required to enter Parliament without winning an electorate seat. However, sampling uncertainty means its actual support could be above or below that threshold.
By comparison, the RNZ–Reid Research poll placed Opportunity at 5.5%, while the latest 1News–Verian poll recorded 7%.
Both results would give Opportunity parliamentary representation if repeated at the election, potentially leaving it holding the balance of power. Notably, Curia and Verian conducted their surveys over the same October 1–5 period.
In the preferred prime minister rankings, Christopher Luxon remained at 21.2%, narrowly ahead of Chris Hipkins on 21%, up 4.1 points. Winston Peters climbed 3.2 points to 13.9%.
Curia Market Research surveyed 1,000 New Zealand adults for the Taxpayers’ Union between October 1 and 5, using telephone and online polling. The results were weighted to reflect the adult population, with a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. A further 2.5% were undecided on the party vote question.
With the general election scheduled for November 7, the contrasting results underline the uncertainty surrounding Opportunity's parliamentary prospects and the composition of the next government.
