New Zealand's latest 1News Verian poll projects a parliamentary majority for a left-wing grouping of Labour, the Greens and the Opportunity Party, together with Māori electorate MPs, while the existing National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition falls short of the seats required to retain government.
The poll, released Tuesday, October 13, places National and Labour level on 28%, while Opportunity has climbed one percentage point to 8%, enough to secure a projected 10 seats under New Zealand's Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system.
The Greens slipped one point to 15%, ACT rose one point to 10%, and New Zealand First remained unchanged at 10%. Te Pāti Māori fell to 0.4%.
Under the poll's parliamentary projections, National would secure 34 seats, ACT 12 and New Zealand First 12, leaving the governing coalition with just 58 MPs and insufficient support to form a majority government.
Labour would secure 34 seats, the Greens 18 and Opportunity 10, giving the three parties a combined 62 MPs. Including projected Māori electorate representation would increase the wider grouping's total to between 63 and 67 seats.
Both parliamentary scenarios would give this grouping a majority. In a 120-seat Parliament, it would hold approximately 63 seats, exceeding the 61 required. Under the alternative scenario, four overhang seats would expand Parliament to 124 MPs, giving the grouping approximately 67 seats against a majority requirement of 63.
An overhang occurs when a party wins more electorate seats than its share of the party vote would otherwise entitle it to. Those additional MPs increase the size of Parliament and the number of seats needed for a majority.
One possible route for the existing coalition to overcome its projected seat deficit, without a broader swing in party support, would be a substantial National Party overhang.
The strategy, promoted by several figures on the political right, involves National supporters casting their electorate vote for their local National candidate while directing their party vote to ACT or New Zealand First. This could increase the coalition's overall representation if National retained enough electorate seats to exceed its reduced party-vote entitlement.
However, National has rejected the strategy. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and former prime minister Sir John Key have warned against splitting votes, while ACT and New Zealand First have challenged National's position. The strategy's effectiveness would depend on electorate results and the number of voters participating.
Meanwhile, Labour leader Chris Hipkins has drawn level with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, with both recording 20% support as preferred prime minister.
The proportion of respondents who were undecided or unwilling to disclose their party preference rose to 12%, leaving considerable uncertainty ahead of the general election.
Verian surveyed 1,007 eligible voters between October 8 and 12, with a maximum sampling error of approximately ±3.1 percentage points.
Advance voting begins Monday, October 26. Election day is Saturday, November 7, with polling places open from 9am until voting closes at 7pm.
